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EUR/CHF: While the overall outlook remains highly bearish, we can not ignore a daily RSI which has remarkably dipped below 10. Daily, weekly and monthly studies are all showing oversold and as such, we see the greater risk for a significant bounce back towards 1.4500 at a minimum, before even considering renewed weakness and bear trend resumption. The market had finally broken below 1.4300 to fresh all-time lows and with this target finally breached, the timing for a major correction looks to be favorable. Aggressive players should look to build counter-trend longs at current levels.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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EUR/JPY: Despite the latest setbacks after stalling out ahead of key shorter term resistance at 125.25, the outlook for the cross could still be quite constructive with the market potentially in the process of carving out an inverse head & shoulders bottom. Last Monday’s declines were well propped ahead of 120.00 and the right shoulder could now be in place by 121.00 in favor of some renewed strength back towards neckline resistance by 125.25. A break and close back above 125.25 would now trigger the formation and ultimately open a measured move extension towards 130.00 over the coming days. Back under 120.00 would however negate recovery prospects.

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Has finally broken down below the multi-day consolidation lows (fresh 2010 low) to likely confirm a bearish continuation and open the next major downside extension towards key psychological barriers by 1.3000 over the coming days.

EUR/USD: Daily studies have had time to unwind from oversold levels following the major drop in January and February, and there is plenty of room for studies to track lower which is supportive of the prospects for continued weakness. In the interim, key short-term resistance comes in by 1.3570, with a break to potentially open 1.3815 further up. However, we do not see gains extending much beyond 1.3570 and would recommend looking for opportunities to sell rallies into this level.

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GBP/JPY: The market is in the process of correcting out from oversold levels, with the cross now consolidating back above the 10/20-Day SMAs. Nevertheless, the current bounce can only be classed as corrective, with the market potentially looking to carve out the next lower top below 143.00, ahead of some bearish continuation. A break back above 139.50 would be required to take pressure off of the downside.

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GBP/USD: The market looks to be in the process of a bearish consolidation, with an eventual break below 1.4780 to confirm and open the next major downside extension. The 10-Day SMA has been below the 20-Day SMA for a good portion of 2010, and with the shorter-term SMA now kissing the 20-Day (slightly above), we could once again be on the verge of another major decline. Key short-term resistance comes in by 1.5115, with a break back above this level required to take the immediate pressure off of the downside. Ultimately however, only back above 1.5400 would force a shift in the structure.

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NZD/USD: Despite the surge back above 0.7150, we retain a bearish bias and look for the market to top out by 0.7180 ahead of a major bearish resumption. The key short-term level to watch below comes in by 0.7000, and we would recommend looking to play a break back below this level in anticipation of some fresh declines.

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USD/CAD: Our overall outlook for the pair remains highly constructive and as such, any dips towards parity should be used as formidable buy opportunities. At this point however, we can not rule out the potential for a short lived dip below the 1 handle to test 0.9900. But any dips should ultimately be well supported by 0.9900 which represents the 78.6% fib retracement off of the major 2007-2009 move. For now, bulls should be encouraged by the recovery of the past several days. The key short level to watch above comes in by 1.0300, with a break to accelerate gains. Back under 1.0100 would delay and expose 0.9900.

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USD/CHF: The overall structure is constructive with a medium-term higher low now sought out by 1.0500 in favor of the next major upside extension beyond 1.0900 and towards 1.1500 further up. Ultimately, it is the 200-Day SMA that we use as our gauge for direction, with the longer-term SMA, which comes in just under 1.0500, expected to continue to prop setbacks. So long as the market holds above this SMA, we recommend looking for opportunities to be long. Any intraday setbacks should be well supported in the 1.0550-1.0600 area.

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USD/JPY: Has been very well supported on dips, and we look for the most recent sharp rebound to open additional upside over the coming days back above critical medium-term resistance at 93.75. The latest impressive rally from last Wednesday/Thursday reaffirms our outlook with the market establishing back above the 200-Day SMA for the first time since August 2009. Look for any intraday setbacks to now be well supported in the 91.00 area.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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